I’d guess that 85% of the sci-fi-fantasy section at the regional B&N is fantasy. Of what remains as sci-fi, there is Phillip K. Dick, Andy Weir’s three novels, some David Weber (one title), a smattering of other sci-fi that’s been on the shelf over six months, and some assorted other things. I’m not counting the Star Wars novels (a half dozen or so, not as many as in the past) or Warhammer (fantasy or sci-fi?) or Halo (another half dozen books). The numbers have been dwindling for some time, and plummeted once Baen stopped working as closely with B&N*.

So, right there, distribution is one consideration in the lower numbers of sci-fi novels on the shelves. If the main supplier isn’t selling through an outlet, people who buy through that outlet won’t see new titles, unless they are such best-sellers that the outlet agrees to stock those (Monster Hunter, David Weber). They can be special ordered, which I have done, but are not visible on the shelves. That reduces sales, which starts a spiral of “No one buys it, so we don’t stock it.”

Despite the runaway success of hard sci-fi movies like The Martian, sci-fi seems to be less popular among publishers. Even literary sci-fi like Kim S. Robinson and others write has faded from view, aside from Octavia Butler and some writers-of-color (US, Canadian, or otherwise). Publishers seem inclined toward “human-centered” genres like romantasy, cozy fantasy, Lit-RPG, and some of the softer sci-fi books. One of those is front and center on the new book table as you come into the store. I glanced at it, then shook my head. The cover copy put the main character’s “they/them” pronouns up front. That suggests that the science part of space travel et cetera is secondary to other parts of the story. Which is great if you enjoy that and look for it in your books.

Too, I wonder if the lack of broad public interest (or officially touted by publishers lack of interest) in hard science plays a role in the decline. Without Baen on the shelf, that leaves Weir, two or three others (one with a heavy feminist slant), and perhaps Hugh Howey’s Dust trilogy. And Dune, thanks to the remake. If people are not into astrophysics, xenobiology, space travel, and so on, why pay for books about that, if you are a publisher? That it starts a spiral goes without consideration, or that markets can be built (see the revival of Westerns.)

I suspect a goodly number of hard sci-fi types have said, “Chuck it” and self publish. If they find readers, they keep 70% of the income from electronic sales, or can publish more widely and still keep a lot of the income, without worrying about tailoring their tales to editorial desires. Heck, there’s probably Elon Musk fan-fiction out there, with correct orbital physics and other fun stuff for those so inclined. The down side is that without the books on the shelves, people who shelf-shop don’t see that the genre still lives.

Note, this is one regional book store outlet, not a specialty bookstore or independent shop. My observations might not even be universal for B&N, because of the greater lee-way now permitted local buyers. However, it is something to think about before you go in search of an agent to sell your diamond hard Sci-fi space novel to a major publisher.