It should come as no surprise that a lot of writers tend towards conspiracy theory – as do a lot of other highly creative types. After all, humanity in general is wired to lean towards finding patterns where none exist, and a conspiracy theory is nothing more than imputing some unseen guiding hand in events that should be unconnected – finding a pattern, in other words. We’re also generally wired towards finding meaning – even if there isn’t any. Meaning is the tool our brains use to navigate our world – which has the interesting result that most people would prefer a universe run by an evil mastermind than one that operates on a set of rules and random events (which, incidentally, does not mean what a lot of people think it means. Randomness is one of those concepts that doesn’t gel terribly well with human nature).

People who spend their lives – or any significant portion thereof – bringing new order from something that wasn’t there before are going to be even more attuned to patterns, and therefore conspiracy. Also, not to put too fine a point on it, paranoia. Working in a field where the outcome bears next to zero relationship to the quality of the creator’s inputs (once you get past the “good enough” bar, anyway – and that one’s been creeping steadily lower what with the creative industries busily devouring their young) will do that. I fight the tendency all the time – to the extent of reminding myself repeatedly that when there’s a choice between a conspiracy and stupidity – even the most breathtakingly unbelievable stupidity on par with putting one’s dong in a hornet’s nest – go with stupid every time. The people I want to accuse of masterminding some grand conspiracy usually don’t have the brainpower to manage even a small one.

All of which means that the last few weeks in US politics have been really really bad. It seems like every time I turn around there’s another conspiracy hitting the news after having lasted some time despite the obvious lack of competence of those involved. So are they really conspiracies run by evil masterminds?

Actually no – and this is something to keep in mind when plotting. Combining the groupthink effect (the tendency of people to go with what appears to be the consensus view in order to fit in) with a lack of diversity of opinion and a sense that retribution is unlikely (and who is less likely to face retribution than the tax man?) will get you to the same place as a grand conspiracy with a lot less effort on your part. The effect of people doing what people do (namely trying to do what they think their perceived superiors will reward them for) compounds itself in all sorts of fascinating ways.

Of course, I could be wrong and there could be a grand conspiracy afoot – in which case my flabber will officially be gasted.